Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 10.102963 12.463171 15.109732 18.276472 21.940911 26.026232 30.902540
2025-12-28 6.912701 9.944256 13.741213 18.753424 25.096046 32.752661 42.582315
2026-01-04 5.084460 8.304613 12.711084 18.979410 27.444666 38.247712 52.815482
2026-01-11 3.941858 7.209575 12.037603 19.346351 29.746105 43.605655 63.006741
2026-01-18 3.183230 6.458613 11.641484 19.920266 32.227926 49.222442 73.736387
2026-01-25 2.432249 5.511595 10.743907 19.565062 33.253457 52.807714 81.821839
2026-02-01 1.962972 4.926853 10.296859 19.787245 35.062292 57.511901 91.605692
2026-02-08 1.516411 4.254867 9.566789 19.422437 35.880715 60.759565 99.410695
2026-02-15 1.146876 3.624881 8.784484 18.838071 36.246665 63.287818 106.218701
2026-02-22 0.970958 3.379321 8.681893 19.409493 38.498180 68.752296 117.552168
2026-03-01 0.756352 2.962344 8.153945 19.125788 39.265416 71.917021 125.523159
2026-03-08 0.610796 2.675589 7.842379 19.197845 40.619650 76.040287 135.082712
2026-03-15 0.424432 2.193136 7.023404 18.229845 40.168137 77.407809 140.739553
2026-03-22 0.347822 2.032798 6.932804 18.738555 42.442538 83.397608 153.985614
2026-03-29 0.274911 1.843628 6.725991 18.966659 44.196752 88.585369 166.137144
2026-04-05 0.220971 1.696431 6.594075 19.333564 46.225981 94.316907 179.361977
2026-04-12 0.182543 1.592837 6.558435 19.907194 48.684707 100.884067 194.169583
2026-04-19 0.131549 1.380117 6.149390 19.552173 49.263080 104.170398 203.646409
2026-04-26 0.102387 1.260245 5.991940 19.774242 51.010390 109.588513 216.852269
2026-05-03 0.071750 1.090275 5.620986 19.409622 51.504459 112.752970 226.329675
2026-05-10 0.047167 0.920565 5.192045 18.825559 51.473536 114.933404 234.170620
2026-05-17 0.038101 0.872985 5.197891 19.396685 53.966375 121.879007 250.450935
2026-05-24 0.025572 0.759049 4.907580 19.113127 54.553684 125.265217 260.613188